Monday, February 12, 2007

Midcon 2007 week 8

Women's Standings


Mid-Con Games All Games
W L Pct. Stk. H A W L Pct. Stk. H A N Current seed
OU 10 1 .909 W10 4-1 6-0 15 10 .600 W11 8-3 7-7 0-0 (1 seed)
VU 9 3 .750 W2 4-1 5-2 16 10 .615 W2 8-3 8-5 0-2 (2 seed)
ORU 6 5 .545 W2 3-3 3-2 17 9 .654 W3 12-3 5-5 0-1 (3 seed)
SUU 5 6 .455 L3 5-1 0-5 9 16 .360 L3 9-4 0-12 0-0 (4 seed)
UMKC 5 6 .455 W1 3-3 2-3 9 17 .346 W1 5-6 4-10 0-1 (6 seed)
WIU 5 7 .417 L3 2-3 3-4 9 17 .346 L3 5-5 4-10 0-2 (6 seed)
IUPUI 4 7 .364 L2 2-3 2-4 10 15 .400 L2 6-5 4-10 0-0 (7 seed)
CC 1 10 .091 W1 1-6 0-4 5 21 .192 W1 4-10 1-10 0-1 (8 seed)


Oakland has clinched at least the #2 seed and a first game on Saturday. With any combination of OU wins and VU losses that equals 1, they will clinch the #1 seed because they swept VU in head-to-head competition.

Valpo has clinched the #2 seed as well, since the only team that can even tie them is ORU and Valpo swept ORU. So, Oakland and Valpo will be playing on Saturday night in the first round of the tournament.

ORU can of course secure the #3 seed by winning out, or by winning as many as the teams beneath them. It is still mathematically possible for ORU to fall as low as #7 seed if they lose out and everbody else (except Centenary) wins a game (in IUPUI's case 2 games).

WIU and UMKC can finish at best 7-7. SUU and UMKC can finish at best 8-6. ORU could finish 9-5. Beyond that, seeds 3-7 are a big muddle at the moment.

Centenary has obviously locked up the #8 seed.

Monday, February 19
Lady Golden Grizzlies at Lady Roos, 7:00 PM CST
Lady Jaguars at Lady T-Birds, 7:00 PM MST
Ladies at Lady Golden Eagles, 7:00 PM CST
Chicago State at Lady Crusaders, 7:00 PM CST

Saturday, February 24
Lady Roos at Lady Crusaders, 1:30 PM CST
Lady Golden Eagles at Lady Golden Grizzlies 3:30 PM
Lady T-Birds at Westerwinds, 4:00 PM CST (Video available here)
Ladies at Lady Jaguars, 4:30 PM EST

Men's Sagarin Ratings


17 MID-CONTINENT = 70.06 69.74 ( 18) TEAMS= 8
College Basketball 2006-2007
Div I games only through 2007 February 18 Sunday
HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.03 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK)
105 Oral Roberts = 76.72 18 9 72.10( 167)
137 Oakland-Mich. = 74.18 14 13 74.55( 101)
147 Valparaiso = 73.20 13 14 73.58( 136)
159 Southern Utah = 72.07 14 11 70.43( 228)
198 IUPUI = 69.37 11 13 70.73( 212)
244 UMKC = 66.47 9 17 71.78( 178)
256 Centenary = 65.53 10 18 70.84( 209)
312 Western Illinois = 60.38 4 21 69.80( 248)

17 MID-CONTINENT = 70.06 69.74 ( 18) TEAMS= 8
College Basketball 2006-2007
Div I games only through 2007 February 18 Sunday
VS top 25 | VS top 50 | PREDICTOR
105 Oral Roberts 1 1 | 1 3 | 76.36 104
137 Oakland-Mich. 0 2 | 0 5 | 73.96 136
147 Valparaiso 0 2 | 0 4 | 73.41 143
159 Southern Utah 0 0 | 0 1 | 71.60 164
198 IUPUI 0 1 | 0 2 | 69.48 193
244 UMKC 0 1 | 0 2 | 65.92 241
256 Centenary 0 1 | 0 2 | 64.80 262
312 Western Illinois 0 1 | 0 1 | 61.77 299


Men's Standings


Mid-Con Games All Games
W L Pct. Stk. H A W L Pct. Stk. H A N Current seed
ORU 11 1 .917 W4 7-0 4-1 19 9 .679 L1 12-2 5-7 2-0 (1 seed)
OU 8 4 .667 L2 4-1 4-3 15 13 .536 L2 8-2 6-10 1-1 (2 seed)
VU 7 5 .567 W1 4-1 3-4 14 14 .500 L1 7-3 6-9 1-2 (3 seed)
IUPUI 6 6 .500 L1 3-2 3-4 13 13 .500 L1 7-3 4-6 2-4 (4 seed)
SUU 6 6 .500 W1 5-2 1-4 16 11 .593 W1 12-2 4-9 0-0 (5 seed)
UMKC 5 7 .417 W2 5-2 0-5 10 18 .357 W2 9-4 0-13 1-1 (6 seed)
CC 3 9 .250 L1 3-4 0-5 10 18 .357 W1 7-5 1-11 2-2 (7 seed)
WIU 2 10 .167 L2 1-4 1-6 6 21 .222 L2 4-8 1-11 1-2 (8 seed)


Remaining games:

ORU plays at IUPUI and at Oakland
Oakland hosts Centenary and ORU
Valpo hosts SUU and UMKC
IUPUI hosts ORU and Centenary
SUU plays at Valpo and at WIU
UMKC plays at Valpo and at WIU
Centenary plays at IUPUI and at Oakland
WIU hosts SUU and UMKC

ORU has clinched the #1 seed and sole posession of the regular season title, thanks to Oakland's loss to Southern Utah on a last second prayer by Justin Allen.

Oakland can lock up the #2 seed with one win or one Valpo loss next weekend. The worst they can finish is 8-6, which would be good enough for at least the #5 seed.

Valpo can reach as high as 9-5, which would lock up the #3 seed at least, or they could slip to as low as the #6 seed if they lost 2 this weekend.

IUPUI and SUU can finish as high as 8-6 or as low as 6-8. If they both tied Valpo at 8-6, the first tiebreaker tells us to look at the round-robin head-to-head records. Valpo would have necessarily beat UMKC and lost to SUU to make this happen, so Valpo's head-to-head record would be 1-3, SUU's would be 3-1, and IUPUI's would be 2-2, meaning SUU would get the #3 seed, IUPUI #4, and Valpo #5 (UMKC would be at best 6-8 and would have the #6 seed. If somehow Oakland also ended up 8-6, then we'd have a 4 way tie (this is possible because they play ORU and Centenary, 2 teams that aren't part of the tie already). Oakland's round-robin record would be 5-1 (they split with SUU). IUPUI's record would be 2-4 (swept by Oakland, split with VU and SUU). SUU's record would be 4-2 (swept Valpo, split with Oakland and IUPUI). Valpo's record would be 1-5 (split with IUPUI). Hence, Oakland would still get the #2 seed, SUU #3, IUPUI #4, Valpo #5.

Any 2-way tie between Oakland and Valpo would be immediately decided in Oakland's favor, of course. A 3-way tie involving Oakland, Valpo, and IUPUI (all would have to be 8-6) would put Oakland #2 (4-0) and leave Valpo (1-3) and IUPUI (1-3) tied for #3 and #4. In this case, both split with ORU and both were swept by Oakland. So it would fall to their records against SUU, UMKC (in either order), WIU, and Centenary (also in either order). A 3-way tie involving Oakland, Valpo, and SUU (all at 8-6, once again) would put Valpo at #4 (0-4), leaving Oakland (2-2) tied with SUU (2-2) for #2 and #3. Both will have been swept by ORU and both will have swept Valpo, so their tiebreak would also fall to one fo the 4 bottom teams just mentioned. This is the one case where Oakland might not get the #2 seed if they lose out. They would at least get the #3 seed.

If only IUPUI ties with Valpo at 8-6, the tie breaker would reach at least down to SUU because ORU would have split with both, Oakland has swept both, and IUPUI and Valpo split with each other. If Valpo's loss was to SUU, then IUPUI would get the #3 seed because they split with SUU while Valpo will have been swept by SUU (SUU would be 7-7 and UMKC would be 6-8).

If, on the other hand, Valpo's remaining loss is to UMKC, then both will have split with SUU (7-7 or 6-8), both will have split with UMKC (6-8 or 7-7), both will have swept WIU and both will have swept Centenary, so it would all come down to which one has the better RPI, Valpo (currently 161) or IUPUI (currently 229).

Centenary has a shot at the #6 seed if they tie UMKC at 5-9 since they split with the Roos. ORU swept them both, Oakland will have (in this case) split with both, Valpo will have swept both, IUPUI will have split with both, SUU did split with both, and WIU will have split with both, so this too would come to RPI. Centenary is currently at 281, UMKC at 271. Too close to call at this point.

Western Illinois can only hope to ascend to the #7 seed, by winning out and Centenary losing out. First of all, WIU and CC split with each other. If they end up tied at 4-10, it depends on who Centenary beats. ORU swept both. If Centenary loses to Oakland, WIU would win the tiebreaker by splitting with Oakland. If Centenary beats Oakland, then both were swept by Valpo, both will have been swept by IUPUI, both will have split with SUU, both will have split with UMKC, so once again it falls to RPI (WIU is currently at 329).

If they tie at 3-11, the WIU wins the tiebreaker because they split with Oakland while Centenary was swept by Oakland.

Thursday, February 22
Gents at Golden Grizzlies, 7:00 PM EST
Golden Eagles at Jaguars, 7:00 PM EST
Roos at Leathernecks, 7:00 PM CST (Video available here)
T-Birds at Crusaders, 7:00 PM CST

Saturday, February 24
Golden Eagles at Golden Grizzlies, 6:00 PM EST
T-Birds at Leathernecks, 7:00 PM CST (Video available here)
Gents at Jaguars, 7:00 PM EST
Roos at Crusaders, 7:00 PM (Video available here)

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