Oakland clinched the #1 seed with a win over the Lady Roos last Monday. The best VU can do is tie at 11-3, and Oakland wins the tiebreaker because they swept the Lady Crusaders.
Valpo has clinched the #2 seed as well, since the only team that can even tie them is ORU and Valpo swept ORU. So, Oakland and Valpo will be playing on Saturday night in the first round of the tournament.
ORU needs one more win to secure the #3 seed, thanks to IUPUI's victory over SUU at the Centrum last Monday. They could also end up tied at 7-7 with a few teams, though not all 4 teams that are currently 5-7 (SUU, UMKC, WIU, IUPUI). SUU and UMKC both play WIU, so ORU can be tied with UMKC, SUU, and IUPUI, but WIU would then be 5-9. Or, ORU could be tied with WIU and IUPUI, but both SUU and UMKC would be 6-8 or 5-9.
So, if ORU loses to both IUPUI and Oakland, then IUPUI just needs to also beat Centenary to tie with ORU. Meanwhile, if WIU can sweep UMKC and SUU, then it will also tie at 7-7. If SUU sweeps VU and WIU, they instead would tie at 7-7. The same goes for UMKC.
Case 1: Two-way tie with IUPUI
Case 2: Two-way tie with WIU
Case 3: Two-way tie with SUU
Case 4: Two-way tie with UMKC
Case 5: Three-way tie with IUPUI and WIU
Case 6: Three-way tie with IUPUI and SUU
Case 7: Three-way tie with IUPUI and UMKC
Case 8: Four-way tie with IUPUI, SUU, and UMKC
Case 1: ORU will have split with IUPUI. ORU will have been swept by ORU while IUPUI split with them, hence IUPUI would win the tiebreaker.
Case 2: ORU split with WIU. Both will have been swept by Oakland and Valpo. Both will have swept UMKC and Centenary. Both will have split with SUU and IUPUI, so it would come down to RPI. ORU is currently at 213, WIU is currently at 304.
Case 3: ORU split with SUU. Both will have been swept by Oakland, but while ORU was swept by Valpo, SUU will have swept Valpo, so SUU wins the tiebreaker.
Case 4: ORU swept UMKC, so ORU wins the tiebreaker.
Case 5: ORU's 3-way record would be 2-2, IUPUI's would be 2-2, and WIU's would be 2-2. ORU and WIU were both swept by Oakland, but IUPUI split with Oakland, so they win the tiebreaker, leaving a 2-way tie between ORU and WIU, which is covered by Case 2.
Case 6: ORU's 3-way record would be 2-2, IUPUI's would be 3-1, and SUU's would be 1-3, so IUPUI wins the tiebreaker, ORU gets the #4 seed, and SUU gets the #5 seed.
Case 7: ORU's 3-way record would be 3-1, IUPUI's would be 1-3, and UMKC's would be 2-2, so ORU would win the tiebreaker, UMKC would be #4, and IUPUI would be #5.
Case 8: ORU's 4-way record would be 4-2, IUPUI's would be 3-3, UMKC's would be 3-3, and SUU's would be 2-4, so ORU would win the tiebreaker and SUU would have the #6 seed. IUPUI would play UMKC in the 4-5 game, and who cares which one is which?
If ORU wins a game and locks up the 3 seed, then we can have 1, 2, 3, or 4 teams tied at 6-8 or as many as 3 teams tied at 7-7. If ORU beats IUPUI, then the Lady Jags could only reach 6-8. If the tied record is 7-7, then as before, either WIU or both UMKC and SUU can be involved, but not all 3.
If only 2 are tied at 7-7, then they play each other in the 4-5 game and who cares which one is which.
If IUPUI, UMKC, and SUU are in 3-way tie at 7-7, the head-to-head goes like this: IUPUI 2-2, UMKC 3-1, SUU 1-3, so UMKC (4) plays IUPUI (5) and SUU gets the 6 seed.
If 2 teams tie at 7-7 and the other 2 tie at 6-8, then the 2 7-7 teams play each other. One of the 7-7 teams in this dual scenario would have to be IUPUI because WIU plays both UMKC and SUU, and if SUU and UMKC end up tied at 7-7, IUPUI is either alone at 6-8 or else tied with WIU at 5-9.
Case 1: UMKC and WIU are tied at 6-8. If UMKC beats Valpo, then WIU wins the tiebreaker by sweeping UMKC. If UMKC loses to Valpo, then we look at Oakland: UMKC 0-2, WIU 0-2. Valpo: UMKC will be 0-2, WIU 0-2. ORU: UMKC 0-2, WIU 1-1. So once again WIU wins the tiebreaker.
Case 2: SUU and WIU are tied at 6-8. If SUU loses to Valpo, then they'd win the tiebreaker by sweeping WIU. If they beat Valpo, then they'd split with WIU, so we'd look at Oakland: SUU 0-2 WIU 0-2. Valpo SUU 2-0, WIU 0-2, so SUU wins the tiebreaker. Either way, SUU gets the 6 seed and WIU gets the 7 seed.
Case 3: SUU and UMKC are tied at 6-8. This means they each beat Valpo and lose to WIU. They split with each other, they were both swept by Oakland. SUU will have swept Valpo while UMKC will have split, so SUU wins the tiebreaker.
If 3 teams are tied at 6-8, it could be any 3 of the 4 teams.
Case 1: IUPUI, WIU, and UMKC tied at 6-8 (SUU either 7-7 or 5-9). Head-to-head: IUPUI 1-3, WIU 3-1 or 2-2, UMKC 3-1 or 2-2. The winner of the WIU-UMKC game wins the tiebreaker. The loser is seeded directly between the winner and IUPUI. SUU would have either the 4 or the 7 seed.
Case 2: IUPUI, WIU, and SUU tied at 6-8 (UMKC either 7-7 or 5-9). Head-to-head: IUPUI 3-1, WIU 1-3 or 2-2, SUU 1-3 or 2-2. IUPUI wins the tiebreaker. The winner of the WIU-SUU game gets the next seed, and the loser gets the remaining seed, with UMKC getting either the 4 or the 7 seed.
Case 3: IUPUI, UMKC, and SUU tied at 6-8 (WIU either 7-7 or 5-9). Head-to-head: IUPUI 2-2, UMKC 3-1, SUU 1-3, so UMKC wins the tiebreaker, followed by IUPUI, then SUU. WIU gets either the 4 or the 7 seed.
Case 4: UMKC, SUU, and WIU tied at 6-8 (IUPUI either 7-7 or 5-9). Head-to-head: UMKC 2-2 or 1-3, SUU 2-2 or 3-1, WIU 2-2. If SUU beats WIU, they win the tiebreaker, WIU is next, and UMKC brings up the rear. If UMKC beats WIU, then we have to look at common opponents. Oakland: All 3 at 0-2. Valpo: UMKC and WIU wlll be 0-2, and SUU will be 2-0, so SUU wins the tiebreaker. UMKC and WIU remain tied, so we start all over with them. They will have split, they both were swept by Oakland and by Valpo, but while UMKC was swept by ORU, SUU split with ORU, so SUU wins that tiebreaker and UMKC brings up the rear.
It is even possible for all 4 teams (UMKC, SUU, WIU, and IUPUI) to be tied at 6-8, if WIU splits with UMKC and SUU, one of those two teams beats Valpo, and IUPUI splits with Centenary and ORU. Head-to-head: UMKC 3-3 or 4-2, SUU 2-4 or 3-3, WIU 3-3, IUPUI 3-3. If UMKC beats WIU, they win the tiebreaker, SUU brings up the rear, and WIU and IUPUI are tied at 3-3. They split with each other, but while WIU was swept by Oakland, IUPUI split with Oakland, so IUPUI falls in behind UMKC, then WIU, and finally SUU. If on the other hand SUU beats WIU, then all 4 teams are 3-3 in head to head, so we move on to Oakland: IUPUI 1-1, the other 3 are 0-2, so IUPUI wins the tiebreaker, and we look at the remaining 3. UMKC will 2-2, SUU 2-2, and WIU 2-2. Oakland: All 3 are 0-2. Valpo: UMKC 1-1, SUU 1-1, WIU 0-2, so WIU brings up the rear and SUU and UMKC remain tied. They split, they both were swept by Oakland, they both will have split with Valpo, but while SUU split with ORU, UMKC was swept by ORU, so SUU wins that tiebreaker.
Centenary has obviously locked up the #8 seed.
